Darlington Raceway

Cup Series · Intermediate (1.5 mile)

Edge vs book implied%: ≥ +5% +2–5% flat -2–5% ≤ -5%

Driver	Team	Fin	DNF%	Win%	DK	Edge	Top5%	DK	Edge	Top10%	DK	Edge
Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	10.2	7.8%	14.1%	+600 14.3%	-0.2%	43.0%	-110 52.4%	-9.4%	63.3%	-330 76.7%	-13.4%
Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	7.81	6.6%	13.0%	+500 16.7%	-3.7%	57.4%	-134 57.4%	+0.0%	78.0%	-400 80.0%	-2.0%
Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	12.8	6.8%	7.5%	↓ +650 13.3%	-5.8%	33.0%	+100 50.0%	-17.0%	49.1%	-274 73.3%	-24.2%
Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	14.74	10.9%	5.9%	+2500 3.8%	+2.1%	22.2%	+320 23.8%	-1.6%	44.6%	+110 47.6%	-3.0%
Joey Logano	Team Penske	15.69	7.5%	5.9%	+1400 6.7%	-0.8%	20.9%	+185 35.1%	-14.2%	38.0%	-149 60.0%	-22.0%
William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	12.28	12.5%	5.6%	+1000 9.1%	-3.5%	31.9%	+135 42.6%	-10.8%	55.8%	-200 66.7%	-10.9%
Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	15.76	18.5%	5.1%	+700 12.5%	-7.4%	28.6%	-105 51.2%	-22.6%	45.0%	-300 75.0%	-30.0%
Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	11.8	7.0%	4.5%	+1000 9.1%	-4.6%	32.5%	+135 42.6%	-10.1%	54.5%	-200 66.7%	-12.2%
Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	15.45	11.6%	4.2%	+2500 3.8%	+0.4%	20.8%	+320 23.8%	-3.1%	42.2%	+110 47.6%	-5.4%
Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	13.74	6.2%	3.5%	+2200 4.3%	-0.8%	18.1%	+285 26.0%	-7.9%	45.9%	+100 50.0%	-4.1%
Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	14.43	14.8%	2.8%	+850 10.5%	-7.7%	21.4%	+114 46.5%	-25.1%	48.2%	-250 71.4%	-23.2%
Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	14.7	12.9%	2.8%	+1800 5.3%	-2.5%	17.8%	+235 29.9%	-12.1%	41.2%	-120 54.6%	-13.4%
Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	14.32	7.4%	2.7%	+1600 5.9%	-3.2%	17.4%	+210 32.3%	-14.9%	41.8%	-125 55.6%	-13.8%
Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	16.85	10.1%	2.4%	+3000 3.2%	-0.8%	13.9%	+380 20.8%	-6.9%	30.1%	+135 42.6%	-12.5%
Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	19.16	11.7%	2.2%	+3000 3.2%	-1.0%	11.7%	+380 20.8%	-9.2%	28.5%	+135 42.6%	-14.1%
Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	16.82	15.7%	1.9%	+2800 3.4%	-1.5%	12.9%	+359 21.7%	-8.8%	30.2%	+125 44.4%	-14.2%
Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	20.24	17.6%	1.8%	+6500 1.5%	+0.3%	13.9%	+800 11.1%	+2.8%	26.8%	+280 26.3%	+0.5%
Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	23.83	29.1%	1.8%	+4000 2.4%	-0.6%	6.4%	+500 16.7%	-10.3%	15.5%	+175 36.4%	-20.9%
Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	18.35	12.2%	1.5%	+8000 1.2%	+0.3%	8.4%	+1000 9.1%	-0.7%	25.0%	+340 22.7%	+2.3%
AJ Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	21.13	8.3%	1.5%	+25000 0.4%	+1.1%	8.2%	+3000 3.2%	+5.0%	17.3%	+1000 9.1%	+8.2%
Austin Cindric	Team Penske	17.53	7.3%	1.2%	+5500 1.8%	-0.6%	8.2%	+650 13.3%	-5.1%	21.5%	+235 29.9%	-8.4%
Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	22.23	14.7%	1.2%	+11000 0.9%	+0.3%	5.5%	+1300 7.1%	-1.6%	17.2%	+450 18.2%	-1.0%
Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	18.39	7.8%	1.0%	+5500 1.8%	-0.8%	7.6%	+650 13.3%	-5.7%	23.9%	+235 29.9%	-5.9%
John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	22.07	6.7%	1.0%	+13000 0.8%	+0.2%	7.0%	+1600 5.9%	+1.0%	16.4%	+500 16.7%	-0.2%
Shane Van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	23.46	12.4%	0.9%	+8000 1.2%	-0.3%	5.8%	+1000 9.1%	-3.3%	12.1%	+340 22.7%	-10.6%
Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	24.46	14.0%	0.8%	+70000 0.1%	+0.8%	3.7%	+8000 1.2%	+2.5%	8.5%	+2200 4.3%	+4.2%
Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	21.56	12.9%	0.6%	+20000 0.5%	+0.1%	3.5%	+2500 3.8%	-0.2%	12.2%	+800 11.1%	+1.1%
Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	23.3	14.3%	0.6%	+30000 0.3%	+0.3%	2.9%	+3500 2.8%	+0.1%	10.8%	+1200 7.7%	+3.1%
Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	25.16	8.2%	0.5%	+70000 0.1%	+0.4%	2.2%	+8000 1.2%	+1.0%	5.9%	+2000 4.8%	+1.1%
Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	26.6	26.8%	0.5%	+20000 0.5%	+0.0%	3.0%	+2500 3.8%	-0.8%	7.8%	+800 11.1%	-3.3%
Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	24.67	9.1%	0.3%	+15000 0.7%	-0.4%	2.0%	+1800 5.3%	-3.3%	8.1%	+600 14.3%	-6.2%
Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	28.84	23.9%	0.2%	+100000 0.1%	+0.1%	1.1%	+12000 0.8%	+0.3%	2.9%	+2500 3.8%	-0.9%
Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	22.2	12.9%	0.1%	+10000 1.0%	-0.9%	1.4%	+1200 7.7%	-6.3%	8.6%	+400 20.0%	-11.4%
Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	21.94	8.0%	0.1%	+20000 0.5%	-0.4%	1.4%	+2500 3.8%	-2.4%	7.4%	+800 11.1%	-3.7%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	HYAK Motorsports	23.04	13.0%	0.1%	+35000 0.3%	-0.1%	3.2%	+4000 2.4%	+0.8%	9.1%	+1400 6.7%	+2.4%
Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	27.04	18.5%	0.1%	+11000 0.9%	-0.8%	1.3%	+1300 7.1%	-5.8%	4.4%	+450 18.2%	-13.8%
Corey Heim	23XI Racing	25.24	11.2%	0.0%	+3000 3.2%	-3.2%	0.0%	+380 20.8%	-20.8%	2.0%	+135 42.6%	-40.6%
Chad Finchum	Garage 66	33.15	49.8%	0.0%	+100000 0.1%	-0.1%	0.0%	+12000 0.8%	-0.8%	0.0%	+2500 3.8%	-3.8%

50,000 simulations · data as of 2026-09-02 03:07 UTC