Backtest Results
Model accuracy vs historical results · lower W-Rank and MAE = better
All Runs
| Year | Series | Races | MAE | MAE (fin.) | W-Rank | T3 avg | T5 avg | T10 avg | Avg DNFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Cup | 33 | 7.54 | 6.55 | 7.82 | 0.94/3 | 2.27/5 | 5.33/10 | 4.8 |
| 2026 | Trucks | 22 | 7.60 | 6.56 | 5.09 | 1.00/3 | 2.14/5 | 5.32/10 | 6.0 |
| 2026 | Xfinity | 30 | 7.17 | 6.10 | 5.13 | 1.03/3 | 2.07/5 | 5.83/10 | 6.3 |
| 2025 | Cup | 36 | 8.05 | 7.06 | 5.47 | 0.94/3 | 2.03/5 | 5.08/10 | 5.5 |
| 2025 | Trucks | 25 | 6.64 | 5.87 | 3.44 | 1.28/3 | 2.32/5 | 5.64/10 | 7.2 |
| 2025 | Xfinity | 33 | 7.51 | 6.32 | 5.64 | 1.09/3 | 2.09/5 | 5.36/10 | 6.1 |
| 2024 | Cup | 36 | 7.97 | 7.08 | 9.08 | 0.81/3 | 1.89/5 | 5.22/10 | 4.5 |
| 2024 | Trucks | 23 | 6.49 | 5.70 | 5.13 | 1.43/3 | 2.39/5 | 5.74/10 | 5.0 |
| 2024 | Xfinity | 33 | 7.75 | 6.38 | 8.67 | 0.85/3 | 1.82/5 | 5.85/10 | 6.8 |
| 2023 | Cup | 36 | 7.54 | 6.60 | 8.83 | 0.69/3 | 1.75/5 | 5.19/10 | 4.2 |
| 2023 | Trucks | 23 | 7.11 | 6.16 | 5.52 | 1.09/3 | 2.22/5 | 5.52/10 | 6.3 |
| 2023 | Xfinity | 33 | 7.43 | 6.18 | 6.12 | 1.00/3 | 2.27/5 | 5.76/10 | 7.0 |
| 2022 | Cup | 36 | 7.79 | 6.81 | 9.44 | 0.69/3 | 1.44/5 | 4.89/10 | 6.4 |
| 2022 | Trucks | 23 | 6.61 | 5.73 | 6.65 | 1.04/3 | 2.30/5 | 6.30/10 | 5.9 |
| 2022 | Xfinity | 33 | 7.61 | 6.38 | 6.00 | 1.06/3 | 2.18/5 | 5.85/10 | 7.5 |
Cup — By Track Style (all years combined)
| Style | Races | MAE | MAE (fin.) | W-Rank | T5 avg | T10 avg | Avg DNFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short Track | 44 | 6.77 | 6.10 | 6.27 | 2.41/5 | 5.75/10 | 3.5 |
| Intermediate (1.5 mile) | 77 | 7.72 | 6.64 | 7.36 | 1.83/5 | 5.40/10 | 5.2 |
| Road Course | 27 | 7.74 | 6.99 | 8.37 | 2.04/5 | 5.30/10 | 3.9 |
| Superspeedway | 29 | 9.53 | 8.28 | 12.79 | 1.00/5 | 3.38/10 | 8.3 |