2026 Cup Chase
Chase standings and per-race outlook · 7 of 10 races complete
as of 2026-10-19 03:30 UTC
Chase standings (after 7 races)
| # | Driver | Team | Seed | Earned | Chase Pts | Back | Champ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports | 7 | 325 | 2370 | — | 47.1% |
| 2 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | 6 | 315 | 2365 | -5 | 24.6% |
| 3 | Chase Briscoe | Joe Gibbs Racing | 5 | 291 | 2346 | -24 | 7.6% |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | 1 | 239 | 2339 | -31 | 9.4% |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske | 2 | 255 | 2330 | -40 | 8.8% |
| 6 | Joey Logano | Team Penske | 9 | 291 | 2326 | -44 | 1.7% |
| 7 | Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing | 3 | 249 | 2314 | -56 | 0.8% |
| 8 | Austin Cindric | Team Penske | 15 | 235 | 2240 | -130 | <0.01% |
| 9 | Ty Gibbs | Joe Gibbs Racing | 4 | 178 | 2238 | -132 | <0.01% |
| 10 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports | 8 | 181 | 2221 | -149 | <0.01% |
| 11 | Carson Hocevar | Spire Motorsports | 12 | 192 | 2212 | -158 | <0.01% |
| 12 | Bubba Wallace | 23XI Racing | 14 | 198 | 2208 | -162 | <0.01% |
| 13 | Daniel Suarez | Spire Motorsports | 11 | 157 | 2182 | -188 | <0.01% |
| 14 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | 13 | 165 | 2180 | -190 | <0.01% |
| 15 | Chris Buescher | RFK Racing | 10 | 136 | 2166 | -204 | <0.01% |
| 16 | Ryan Preece | RFK Racing | 16 | 159 | 2159 | -211 | <0.01% |
Chase Pts = the seeding reset plus points scored in Chase races. Actual, not projected. Champ% is the season Monte Carlo's championship probability; the race-by-race standings below it are expected points and ignore variance.
Projected champion:
Kyle Larson
Hendrick Motorsports
47.1% to win it
2465 pts
Championship futures edge (DK implied vs model, top 15 by |edge|)
| Driver | Model % | DK odds | Implied % | Fair % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 9.4% | +220 | 31.2% | 23.5% | -14.1% |
| Christopher Bell | 24.6% | +550 | 15.4% | 11.6% | +13.0% |
| Ryan Blaney | 8.8% | +1600 | 5.9% | 4.4% | +4.4% |
| Kyle Larson | 47.1% | -135 | 57.4% | 43.3% | +3.8% |
| Joey Logano | 1.7% | +2000 | 4.8% | 3.6% | -1.9% |
| Tyler Reddick | 0.8% | +3500 | 2.8% | 2.1% | -1.3% |
| Austin Cindric | 0.0% | +8000 | 1.2% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| Ty Gibbs | 0.0% | +8000 | 1.2% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| Bubba Wallace | 0.0% | +15000 | 0.7% | 0.5% | -0.5% |
| Chase Elliott | 0.0% | +20000 | 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.4% |
| Carson Hocevar | 0.0% | +20000 | 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.4% |
| William Byron | 0.0% | +20000 | 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.4% |
| Daniel Suarez | 0.0% | +50000 | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| Chris Buescher | 0.0% | +50000 | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| Ryan Preece | 0.0% | +50000 | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.2% |
Model: season projection 2026-10-19 · Market: DK Cup Champion futures. Implied % is the raw book probability (includes overround); Fair % rescales it to sum to 100% across the compared set. Edge = model − fair implied; positive = the model rates the driver higher than the de-vigged market.
Chase seeding (16 drivers, locked)
| Seed | Driver | Team | Seed Pts | Final Reg Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2100 | 1025 |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske | 2075 | 939 |
| 3 | Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing | 2065 | 896 |
| 4 | Ty Gibbs | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2060 | 894 |
| 5 | Chase Briscoe | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2055 | 761 |
| 6 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2050 | 759 |
| 7 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports | 2045 | 722 |
| 8 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports | 2040 | 722 |
| 9 | Joey Logano | Team Penske | 2035 | 710 |
| 10 | Chris Buescher | RFK Racing | 2030 | 678 |
| 11 | Daniel Suarez | Spire Motorsports | 2025 | 674 |
| 12 | Carson Hocevar | Spire Motorsports | 2020 | 672 |
| 13 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | 2015 | 665 |
| 14 | Bubba Wallace | 23XI Racing | 2010 | 650 |
| 15 | Austin Cindric | Team Penske | 2005 | 632 |
| 16 | Ryan Preece | RFK Racing | 2000 | 623 |
R27 Cook Out Southern 500 · Darlington Raceway final Christopher Bell
Result
| 1 | Christopher Bell | 73 pts |
| 2 | Ty Gibbs | 36 pts |
| 3 | Tyler Reddick | 46 pts |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | 44 pts |
| 5 | Kyle Larson | 41 pts |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2135 |
| 2 | ▲ | Christopher Bell | 2123 |
| 3 | ▼ | Ryan Blaney | 2119 |
| 4 | ▼ | Tyler Reddick | 2111 |
| 5 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2098 |
| 6 | ▼ | Ty Gibbs | 2096 |
| 7 | — | Kyle Larson | 2086 |
| 8 | ▲ | Joey Logano | 2063 |
| 9 | ▼ | Chase Elliott | 2063 |
| 10 | ▲ | Bubba Wallace | 2054 |
| 11 | ▼ | Chris Buescher | 2047 |
| 12 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2046 |
| 13 | ▼ | Daniel Suarez | 2041 |
| 14 | ▲ | Austin Cindric | 2033 |
| 15 | ▲ | Ryan Preece | 2031 |
| 16 | ▼ | William Byron | 2021 |
R28 Enjoy Illinois 300 · World Wide Technology Raceway final Kyle Larson
Result
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 73 pts |
| 2 | Alex Bowman | 38 pts |
| 3 | Joey Logano | 54 pts |
| 4 | William Byron | 33 pts |
| 5 | Ross Chastain | 32 pts |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2168 |
| 2 | ▲ | Kyle Larson | 2159 |
| 3 | ▼ | Christopher Bell | 2150 |
| 4 | ▼ | Ryan Blaney | 2135 |
| 5 | ▼ | Tyler Reddick | 2126 |
| 6 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2117 |
| 7 | ▲ | Joey Logano | 2117 |
| 8 | ▼ | Chase Briscoe | 2109 |
| 9 | ▲ | Carson Hocevar | 2080 |
| 10 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2078 |
| 11 | ▼ | Chase Elliott | 2075 |
| 12 | ▲ | Austin Cindric | 2060 |
| 13 | ▼ | Chris Buescher | 2057 |
| 14 | ▲ | Ryan Preece | 2055 |
| 15 | ▲ | William Byron | 2054 |
| 16 | ▼ | Daniel Suarez | 2049 |
R29 Bass Pro Shops Night Race · Bristol Motor Speedway final Joey Logano
Result
| 1 | Joey Logano | 73 pts |
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 47 pts |
| 3 | Carson Hocevar | 41 pts |
| 4 | Christopher Bell | 39 pts |
| 5 | Ty Gibbs | 47 pts |
Standings after race
| 1 | ▲ | Kyle Larson | 2206 |
| 2 | ▼ | Denny Hamlin | 2205 |
| 3 | ▲ | Joey Logano | 2190 |
| 4 | ▼ | Christopher Bell | 2189 |
| 5 | ▲ | Ty Gibbs | 2164 |
| 6 | ▼ | Ryan Blaney | 2154 |
| 7 | ▼ | Tyler Reddick | 2145 |
| 8 | ▲ | Carson Hocevar | 2121 |
| 9 | ▼ | Chase Briscoe | 2119 |
| 10 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2114 |
| 11 | ▲ | Austin Cindric | 2090 |
| 12 | ▼ | Chase Elliott | 2089 |
| 13 | ▲ | William Byron | 2085 |
| 14 | — | Ryan Preece | 2082 |
| 15 | ▼ | Chris Buescher | 2082 |
| 16 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2072 |
R30 Hollywood Casino 400 · Kansas Speedway final Kyle Larson
Result
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 76 pts |
| 2 | Austin Cindric | 52 pts |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 51 pts |
| 4 | Chase Briscoe | 40 pts |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | 37 pts |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Kyle Larson | 2282 |
| 2 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2256 |
| 3 | ▲ | Christopher Bell | 2232 |
| 4 | ▼ | Joey Logano | 2215 |
| 5 | ▲ | Ryan Blaney | 2191 |
| 6 | ▼ | Ty Gibbs | 2188 |
| 7 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2171 |
| 8 | ▲ | Chase Briscoe | 2159 |
| 9 | ▲ | Austin Cindric | 2142 |
| 10 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2142 |
| 11 | ▼ | Carson Hocevar | 2132 |
| 12 | ▲ | William Byron | 2124 |
| 13 | ▼ | Chase Elliott | 2121 |
| 14 | — | Ryan Preece | 2109 |
| 15 | — | Chris Buescher | 2096 |
| 16 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2095 |
R31 South Point 400 · Las Vegas Motor Speedway final Chase Briscoe
Result
| 1 | Chase Briscoe | 75 pts |
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 36 pts |
| 3 | Tyler Reddick | 41 pts |
| 4 | Austin Cindric | 48 pts |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | 47 pts |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Kyle Larson | 2318 |
| 2 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2278 |
| 3 | — | Christopher Bell | 2263 |
| 4 | — | Joey Logano | 2247 |
| 5 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2238 |
| 6 | ▲ | Chase Briscoe | 2234 |
| 7 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2212 |
| 8 | ▼ | Ty Gibbs | 2208 |
| 9 | — | Austin Cindric | 2190 |
| 10 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2181 |
| 11 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2160 |
| 12 | — | William Byron | 2158 |
| 13 | — | Chase Elliott | 2155 |
| 14 | ▲ | Daniel Suarez | 2123 |
| 15 | — | Chris Buescher | 2122 |
| 16 | ▼ | Ryan Preece | 2118 |
R32 Bank of America 400 · Charlotte Motor Speedway final Chase Briscoe
Result
| 1 | Chase Briscoe | 68 pts |
| 2 | Christopher Bell | 53 pts |
| 3 | Ryan Blaney | 44 pts |
| 4 | Josh Berry | 36 pts |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 40 pts |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Kyle Larson | 2367 |
| 2 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2318 |
| 3 | — | Christopher Bell | 2316 |
| 4 | ▲ | Chase Briscoe | 2302 |
| 5 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2282 |
| 6 | ▼ | Joey Logano | 2275 |
| 7 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2253 |
| 8 | ▲ | Austin Cindric | 2222 |
| 9 | ▼ | Ty Gibbs | 2211 |
| 10 | ▲ | Carson Hocevar | 2187 |
| 11 | ▼ | Bubba Wallace | 2182 |
| 12 | ▲ | Chase Elliott | 2182 |
| 13 | ▼ | William Byron | 2159 |
| 14 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2152 |
| 15 | — | Chris Buescher | 2151 |
| 16 | — | Ryan Preece | 2140 |
R33 Freeway Insurance 500 · Phoenix Raceway final Tyler Reddick
Result
| 1 | Tyler Reddick | 61 pts |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 48 pts |
| 3 | Chase Elliott | 39 pts |
| 4 | Christopher Bell | 49 pts |
| 5 | Corey Heim | 0 pts |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Kyle Larson | 2370 |
| 2 | ▲ | Christopher Bell | 2365 |
| 3 | ▲ | Chase Briscoe | 2346 |
| 4 | ▼ | Denny Hamlin | 2339 |
| 5 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2330 |
| 6 | — | Joey Logano | 2326 |
| 7 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2314 |
| 8 | — | Austin Cindric | 2240 |
| 9 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2238 |
| 10 | ▲ | Chase Elliott | 2221 |
| 11 | ▼ | Carson Hocevar | 2212 |
| 12 | ▼ | Bubba Wallace | 2208 |
| 13 | ▲ | Daniel Suarez | 2182 |
| 14 | ▼ | William Byron | 2180 |
| 15 | — | Chris Buescher | 2166 |
| 16 | — | Ryan Preece | 2159 |
R34 YellaWood 500 · Talladega Superspeedway next Chase Elliott
Win probability
| Chase Elliott | 5.7% |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 5.3% |
| Bubba Wallace | 5.2% |
| William Byron | 5.2% |
| Ryan Blaney | 4.7% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Kyle Larson | 2393 |
| 2 | — | Christopher Bell | 2390 |
| 3 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2371 |
| 4 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2362 |
| 5 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2355 |
| 6 | — | Joey Logano | 2344 |
| 7 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2341 |
| 8 | — | Austin Cindric | 2264 |
| 9 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2260 |
| 10 | — | Chase Elliott | 2246 |
| 11 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2238 |
| 12 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2232 |
| 13 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2207 |
| 14 | — | William Byron | 2206 |
| 15 | — | Chris Buescher | 2189 |
| 16 | — | Ryan Preece | 2180 |
R35 Xfinity 500 · Martinsville Speedway Ryan Blaney
Win probability
| Ryan Blaney | 21.3% |
| Kyle Larson | 14.4% |
| Joey Logano | 11.5% |
| Denny Hamlin | 10.2% |
| William Byron | 8.0% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Kyle Larson | 2432 |
| 2 | — | Christopher Bell | 2422 |
| 3 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2401 |
| 4 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2399 |
| 5 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2396 |
| 6 | — | Joey Logano | 2381 |
| 7 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2366 |
| 8 | — | Austin Cindric | 2288 |
| 9 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2287 |
| 10 | — | Chase Elliott | 2280 |
| 11 | ▲ | Bubba Wallace | 2259 |
| 12 | ▼ | Carson Hocevar | 2258 |
| 13 | ▲ | William Byron | 2236 |
| 14 | ▼ | Daniel Suarez | 2227 |
| 15 | — | Chris Buescher | 2210 |
| 16 | — | Ryan Preece | 2207 |
R36 NASCAR Championship Race · Homestead-Miami Speedway Kyle Larson
Win probability
| Kyle Larson | 13.9% |
| Denny Hamlin | 11.2% |
| Tyler Reddick | 10.1% |
| Ryan Blaney | 8.6% |
| Christopher Bell | 8.6% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Kyle Larson | 2465 |
| 2 | — | Christopher Bell | 2453 |
| 3 | ▲ | Denny Hamlin | 2435 |
| 4 | ▼ | Chase Briscoe | 2433 |
| 5 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2430 |
| 6 | — | Joey Logano | 2408 |
| 7 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2400 |
| 8 | — | Austin Cindric | 2312 |
| 9 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2310 |
| 10 | — | Chase Elliott | 2308 |
| 11 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2288 |
| 12 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2282 |
| 13 | — | William Byron | 2266 |
| 14 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2250 |
| 15 | — | Chris Buescher | 2235 |
| 16 | — | Ryan Preece | 2232 |
200,000 season scenarios · 2,000 sims/race · 7 races scored from actual results · Completed Chase races carry actual results and actual points. Remaining races use expected (mean) Chase points per race; that ranking is an approximation that ignores variance. Full probabilistic championship odds are on the Standings page.