2026 Cup Chase
Chase standings and per-race outlook · 0 of 10 races complete
as of 2026-09-02 03:30 UTC
Chase standings (after 0 races — seeding only)
| # | Driver | Team | Seed | Earned | Chase Pts | Back |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | 1 | 0 | 2100 | — |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske | 2 | 0 | 2075 | -25 |
| 3 | Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing | 3 | 0 | 2065 | -35 |
| 4 | Ty Gibbs | Joe Gibbs Racing | 4 | 0 | 2060 | -40 |
| 5 | Chase Briscoe | Joe Gibbs Racing | 5 | 0 | 2055 | -45 |
| 6 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | 6 | 0 | 2050 | -50 |
| 7 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports | 7 | 0 | 2045 | -55 |
| 8 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports | 8 | 0 | 2040 | -60 |
| 9 | Joey Logano | Team Penske | 9 | 0 | 2035 | -65 |
| 10 | Chris Buescher | RFK Racing | 10 | 0 | 2030 | -70 |
| 11 | Daniel Suarez | Spire Motorsports | 11 | 0 | 2025 | -75 |
| 12 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | 12 | 0 | 2020 | -80 |
| 13 | Carson Hocevar | Spire Motorsports | 13 | 0 | 2015 | -85 |
| 14 | Bubba Wallace | 23XI Racing | 14 | 0 | 2010 | -90 |
| 15 | Ryan Preece | RFK Racing | 15 | 0 | 2005 | -95 |
| 16 | Austin Cindric | Team Penske | 16 | 0 | 2000 | -100 |
Chase Pts = the seeding reset plus points scored in Chase races. Actual, not projected.
Projected champion:
Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing
2460 pts
Championship futures edge (DK implied vs model, top 10 by |edge|)
| Driver | Model % | DK odds | Implied % | Fair % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 72.2% | -110 | 52.4% | 40.6% | +31.6% |
| Ty Gibbs | 0.5% | +800 | 11.1% | 8.6% | -8.1% |
| Chase Briscoe | 1.1% | +1200 | 7.7% | 6.0% | -4.9% |
| Tyler Reddick | 3.8% | +800 | 11.1% | 8.6% | -4.8% |
| Joey Logano | 0.7% | +1400 | 6.7% | 5.2% | -4.5% |
| Chase Elliott | 0.4% | +1800 | 5.3% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| Christopher Bell | 6.8% | +800 | 11.1% | 8.6% | -1.8% |
| Ryan Blaney | 10.3% | +550 | 15.4% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| Kyle Larson | 3.4% | +1600 | 5.9% | 4.6% | -1.2% |
| William Byron | 0.7% | +4000 | 2.4% | 1.9% | -1.2% |
Model: season projection 2026-09-02 · Market: DK Cup Champion futures. Implied % is the raw book probability (includes overround); Fair % rescales it to sum to 100% across the compared set. Edge = model − fair implied; positive = the model rates the driver higher than the de-vigged market.
Chase seeding (16 drivers, locked)
| Seed | Driver | Team | Seed Pts | Final Reg Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2100 | 1026 |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske | 2075 | 929 |
| 3 | Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing | 2065 | 894 |
| 4 | Ty Gibbs | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2060 | 890 |
| 5 | Chase Briscoe | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2055 | 761 |
| 6 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2050 | 752 |
| 7 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports | 2045 | 716 |
| 8 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports | 2040 | 713 |
| 9 | Joey Logano | Team Penske | 2035 | 699 |
| 10 | Chris Buescher | RFK Racing | 2030 | 677 |
| 11 | Daniel Suarez | Spire Motorsports | 2025 | 672 |
| 12 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | 2020 | 666 |
| 13 | Carson Hocevar | Spire Motorsports | 2015 | 664 |
| 14 | Bubba Wallace | 23XI Racing | 2010 | 651 |
| 15 | Ryan Preece | RFK Racing | 2005 | 645 |
| 16 | Austin Cindric | Team Penske | 2000 | 631 |
R27 Cook Out Southern 500 · Darlington Raceway next Tyler Reddick
Win probability
| Tyler Reddick | 14.1% |
| Denny Hamlin | 13.8% |
| Chase Briscoe | 7.6% |
| Joey Logano | 6.7% |
| William Byron | 6.1% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2138 |
| 2 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2102 |
| 3 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2100 |
| 4 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2086 |
| 5 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2084 |
| 6 | — | Christopher Bell | 2080 |
| 7 | — | Kyle Larson | 2070 |
| 8 | — | Chase Elliott | 2066 |
| 9 | — | Joey Logano | 2061 |
| 10 | — | Chris Buescher | 2057 |
| 11 | ▲ | William Byron | 2051 |
| 12 | ▼ | Daniel Suarez | 2046 |
| 13 | ▲ | Bubba Wallace | 2035 |
| 14 | ▼ | Carson Hocevar | 2035 |
| 15 | — | Ryan Preece | 2026 |
| 16 | — | Austin Cindric | 2022 |
R28 Enjoy Illinois 300 · World Wide Technology Raceway Denny Hamlin
Win probability
| Denny Hamlin | 22.1% |
| Ryan Blaney | 10.1% |
| Joey Logano | 7.0% |
| Christopher Bell | 6.8% |
| Chase Briscoe | 5.9% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2177 |
| 2 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2134 |
| 3 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2127 |
| 4 | ▲ | Christopher Bell | 2113 |
| 5 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2112 |
| 6 | ▼ | Ty Gibbs | 2112 |
| 7 | — | Kyle Larson | 2100 |
| 8 | ▲ | Joey Logano | 2093 |
| 9 | ▼ | Chase Elliott | 2092 |
| 10 | — | Chris Buescher | 2084 |
| 11 | — | William Byron | 2078 |
| 12 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2067 |
| 13 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2059 |
| 14 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2056 |
| 15 | ▲ | Austin Cindric | 2048 |
| 16 | ▼ | Ryan Preece | 2046 |
R29 Bass Pro Shops Night Race · Bristol Motor Speedway Kyle Larson
Win probability
| Kyle Larson | 16.8% |
| Denny Hamlin | 14.9% |
| Ryan Blaney | 12.3% |
| Christopher Bell | 12.0% |
| Ty Gibbs | 7.7% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2215 |
| 2 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2169 |
| 3 | ▲ | Christopher Bell | 2150 |
| 4 | ▼ | Tyler Reddick | 2150 |
| 5 | ▲ | Ty Gibbs | 2145 |
| 6 | ▼ | Chase Briscoe | 2143 |
| 7 | — | Kyle Larson | 2136 |
| 8 | — | Joey Logano | 2119 |
| 9 | — | Chase Elliott | 2118 |
| 10 | — | Chris Buescher | 2110 |
| 11 | — | William Byron | 2104 |
| 12 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2082 |
| 13 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2082 |
| 14 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2080 |
| 15 | ▲ | Ryan Preece | 2072 |
| 16 | ▼ | Austin Cindric | 2067 |
R30 Hollywood Casino 400 · Kansas Speedway Denny Hamlin
Win probability
| Denny Hamlin | 18.5% |
| Kyle Larson | 12.0% |
| Tyler Reddick | 9.4% |
| Christopher Bell | 6.2% |
| Chase Briscoe | 5.9% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2254 |
| 2 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2197 |
| 3 | — | Christopher Bell | 2183 |
| 4 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2180 |
| 5 | ▲ | Chase Briscoe | 2170 |
| 6 | ▲ | Kyle Larson | 2170 |
| 7 | ▼ | Ty Gibbs | 2167 |
| 8 | ▲ | Chase Elliott | 2147 |
| 9 | ▼ | Joey Logano | 2144 |
| 10 | — | Chris Buescher | 2136 |
| 11 | — | William Byron | 2132 |
| 12 | ▲ | Bubba Wallace | 2110 |
| 13 | ▼ | Daniel Suarez | 2104 |
| 14 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2100 |
| 15 | — | Ryan Preece | 2092 |
| 16 | — | Austin Cindric | 2085 |
R31 South Point 400 · Las Vegas Motor Speedway Denny Hamlin
Win probability
| Denny Hamlin | 13.7% |
| Christopher Bell | 9.2% |
| Kyle Larson | 8.8% |
| William Byron | 5.9% |
| Chase Elliott | 5.7% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2291 |
| 2 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2221 |
| 3 | — | Christopher Bell | 2215 |
| 4 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2211 |
| 5 | ▲ | Kyle Larson | 2203 |
| 6 | ▼ | Chase Briscoe | 2196 |
| 7 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2189 |
| 8 | ▲ | Joey Logano | 2171 |
| 9 | ▼ | Chase Elliott | 2171 |
| 10 | ▲ | William Byron | 2163 |
| 11 | ▼ | Chris Buescher | 2161 |
| 12 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2133 |
| 13 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2129 |
| 14 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2119 |
| 15 | — | Ryan Preece | 2114 |
| 16 | — | Austin Cindric | 2105 |
R32 Bank of America 400 · Charlotte Motor Speedway Denny Hamlin
Win probability
| Denny Hamlin | 14.7% |
| Christopher Bell | 13.0% |
| Tyler Reddick | 12.8% |
| Chase Briscoe | 6.8% |
| Daniel Suarez | 6.7% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2327 |
| 2 | ▲ | Christopher Bell | 2252 |
| 3 | ▼ | Ryan Blaney | 2247 |
| 4 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2246 |
| 5 | — | Kyle Larson | 2228 |
| 6 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2223 |
| 7 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2217 |
| 8 | — | Joey Logano | 2196 |
| 9 | ▲ | William Byron | 2193 |
| 10 | ▼ | Chase Elliott | 2192 |
| 11 | — | Chris Buescher | 2182 |
| 12 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2155 |
| 13 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2153 |
| 14 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2139 |
| 15 | — | Ryan Preece | 2134 |
| 16 | — | Austin Cindric | 2121 |
R33 Freeway Insurance 500 · Phoenix Raceway Ryan Blaney
Win probability
| Ryan Blaney | 23.8% |
| Christopher Bell | 12.3% |
| Denny Hamlin | 10.2% |
| William Byron | 8.8% |
| Joey Logano | 7.0% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2365 |
| 2 | — | Christopher Bell | 2288 |
| 3 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2287 |
| 4 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2273 |
| 5 | — | Kyle Larson | 2262 |
| 6 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2249 |
| 7 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2242 |
| 8 | — | Joey Logano | 2226 |
| 9 | — | William Byron | 2225 |
| 10 | — | Chase Elliott | 2219 |
| 11 | — | Chris Buescher | 2209 |
| 12 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2178 |
| 13 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2174 |
| 14 | ▲ | Ryan Preece | 2157 |
| 15 | ▼ | Carson Hocevar | 2156 |
| 16 | — | Austin Cindric | 2139 |
R34 YellaWood 500 · Talladega Superspeedway Carson Hocevar
Win probability
| Carson Hocevar | 8.8% |
| Ryan Preece | 6.5% |
| Zane Smith | 5.7% |
| Noah Gragson | 4.6% |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 4.5% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2388 |
| 2 | ▲ | Ryan Blaney | 2310 |
| 3 | ▼ | Christopher Bell | 2309 |
| 4 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2297 |
| 5 | — | Kyle Larson | 2283 |
| 6 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2270 |
| 7 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2260 |
| 8 | ▲ | William Byron | 2248 |
| 9 | ▼ | Joey Logano | 2245 |
| 10 | — | Chase Elliott | 2244 |
| 11 | — | Chris Buescher | 2229 |
| 12 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2198 |
| 13 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2196 |
| 14 | ▲ | Carson Hocevar | 2181 |
| 15 | ▼ | Ryan Preece | 2178 |
| 16 | — | Austin Cindric | 2164 |
R35 Xfinity 500 · Martinsville Speedway Ryan Blaney
Win probability
| Ryan Blaney | 20.4% |
| Denny Hamlin | 12.7% |
| Joey Logano | 12.3% |
| William Byron | 9.2% |
| Christopher Bell | 8.6% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2424 |
| 2 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2351 |
| 3 | — | Christopher Bell | 2342 |
| 4 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2319 |
| 5 | — | Kyle Larson | 2318 |
| 6 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2299 |
| 7 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2288 |
| 8 | ▲ | Joey Logano | 2282 |
| 9 | ▼ | William Byron | 2280 |
| 10 | — | Chase Elliott | 2278 |
| 11 | — | Chris Buescher | 2249 |
| 12 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2224 |
| 13 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2214 |
| 14 | ▲ | Ryan Preece | 2207 |
| 15 | ▼ | Carson Hocevar | 2198 |
| 16 | — | Austin Cindric | 2186 |
R36 NASCAR Championship Race · Homestead-Miami Speedway Denny Hamlin
Win probability
| Denny Hamlin | 15.2% |
| Christopher Bell | 9.2% |
| Kyle Larson | 8.0% |
| Tyler Reddick | 7.2% |
| Ryan Blaney | 6.6% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2460 |
| 2 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2379 |
| 3 | — | Christopher Bell | 2374 |
| 4 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2349 |
| 5 | — | Kyle Larson | 2347 |
| 6 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2326 |
| 7 | ▲ | William Byron | 2311 |
| 8 | ▼ | Ty Gibbs | 2310 |
| 9 | ▼ | Joey Logano | 2306 |
| 10 | — | Chase Elliott | 2304 |
| 11 | — | Chris Buescher | 2275 |
| 12 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2251 |
| 13 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2238 |
| 14 | — | Ryan Preece | 2229 |
| 15 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2220 |
| 16 | — | Austin Cindric | 2207 |
5,000 season scenarios · 2,000 sims/race · Completed Chase races carry actual results and actual points. Remaining races use expected (mean) Chase points per race; that ranking is an approximation that ignores variance. Full probabilistic championship odds are on the Standings page.