2026 O'Reilly Chase
Chase standings and per-race outlook · 6 of 9 races complete
as of 2026-10-19 04:15 UTC
Chase standings (after 6 races)
| # | Driver | Team | Seed | Earned | Chase Pts | Back | Champ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesse Love | Richard Childress Racing | 4 | 307 | 2367 | — | 70.5% |
| 2 | Justin Allgaier | JR Motorsports | 1 | 231 | 2331 | -36 | 17.0% |
| 3 | Corey Day | Hendrick Motorsports | 7 | 283 | 2328 | -39 | 8.9% |
| 4 | Sheldon Creed | Haas Factory Team | 3 | 243 | 2308 | -59 | 3.2% |
| 5 | Carson Kvapil | JR Motorsports | 2 | 213 | 2288 | -79 | 0.3% |
| 6 | Sam Mayer | Haas Factory Team | 10 | 251 | 2281 | -86 | 0.1% |
| 7 | Sammy Smith | JR Motorsports | 8 | 190 | 2230 | -137 | <0.01% |
| 8 | Taylor Gray | Joe Gibbs Racing | 11 | 201 | 2226 | -141 | <0.01% |
| 9 | Austin Hill | Richard Childress Racing | 5 | 169 | 2224 | -143 | <0.01% |
| 10 | Parker Retzlaff | Viking Motorsports | 9 | 159 | 2194 | -173 | <0.01% |
| 11 | Brandon Jones | Joe Gibbs Racing | 6 | 134 | 2184 | -183 | <0.01% |
| 12 | Rajah Caruth | JR Motorsports | 12 | 134 | 2154 | -213 | <0.01% |
Chase Pts = the seeding reset plus points scored in Chase races. Actual, not projected. Champ% is the season Monte Carlo's championship probability; the race-by-race standings below it are expected points and ignore variance.
Projected champion:
Jesse Love
Richard Childress Racing
70.5% to win it
2466 pts
Championship futures edge (DK implied vs model, top 12 by |edge|)
| Driver | Model % | DK odds | Implied % | Fair % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Love | 70.5% | +260 | 27.8% | 20.9% | +49.6% |
| Sheldon Creed | 3.2% | +250 | 28.6% | 21.5% | -18.3% |
| Corey Day | 8.9% | +300 | 25.0% | 18.8% | -9.9% |
| Carson Kvapil | 0.3% | +700 | 12.5% | 9.4% | -9.1% |
| Sam Mayer | 0.1% | +1400 | 6.7% | 5.0% | -4.9% |
| Justin Allgaier | 17.0% | +275 | 26.7% | 20.1% | -3.1% |
| Taylor Gray | 0.0% | +7000 | 1.4% | 1.1% | -1.1% |
| Sammy Smith | 0.0% | +8000 | 1.2% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| Austin Hill | 0.0% | +8000 | 1.2% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| Parker Retzlaff | 0.0% | +15000 | 0.7% | 0.5% | -0.5% |
| Brandon Jones | 0.0% | +15000 | 0.7% | 0.5% | -0.5% |
| Rajah Caruth | 0.0% | +25000 | 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.3% |
Model: season projection 2026-10-19 · Market: DK O'Reilly Series futures. Implied % is the raw book probability (includes overround); Fair % rescales it to sum to 100% across the compared set. Edge = model − fair implied; positive = the model rates the driver higher than the de-vigged market.
Chase seeding (12 drivers, locked)
| Seed | Driver | Team | Seed Pts | Final Reg Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Allgaier | JR Motorsports | 2100 | 1088 |
| 2 | Carson Kvapil | JR Motorsports | 2075 | 863 |
| 3 | Sheldon Creed | Haas Factory Team | 2065 | 816 |
| 4 | Jesse Love | Richard Childress Racing | 2060 | 768 |
| 5 | Austin Hill | Richard Childress Racing | 2055 | 761 |
| 6 | Brandon Jones | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2050 | 752 |
| 7 | Corey Day | Hendrick Motorsports | 2045 | 736 |
| 8 | Sammy Smith | JR Motorsports | 2040 | 698 |
| 9 | Parker Retzlaff | Viking Motorsports | 2035 | 665 |
| 10 | Sam Mayer | Haas Factory Team | 2030 | 632 |
| 11 | Taylor Gray | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2025 | 608 |
| 12 | Rajah Caruth | JR Motorsports | 2020 | 607 |
R25 Fleetio 200 · Darlington Raceway final Sheldon Creed
Result
| 1 | Sheldon Creed | 63 pts |
| 2 | Corey Day | 44 pts |
| 3 | Brent Crews | 34 pts |
| 4 | Sammy Smith | 40 pts |
| 5 | Austin Hill | 44 pts |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Justin Allgaier | 2135 |
| 2 | ▲ | Sheldon Creed | 2128 |
| 3 | ▼ | Carson Kvapil | 2116 |
| 4 | ▲ | Austin Hill | 2099 |
| 5 | ▲ | Corey Day | 2089 |
| 6 | ▼ | Jesse Love | 2087 |
| 7 | ▲ | Sammy Smith | 2080 |
| 8 | ▼ | Brandon Jones | 2077 |
| 9 | ▲ | Sam Mayer | 2069 |
| 10 | ▼ | Parker Retzlaff | 2057 |
| 11 | — | Taylor Gray | 2056 |
| 12 | — | Rajah Caruth | 2031 |
R26 Nu Way 225 Powered by Bobcat and Sauced by Blues Hog · World Wide Technology Raceway final Jesse Love
Result
| 1 | Jesse Love | 72 pts |
| 2 | Sheldon Creed | 47 pts |
| 3 | Sam Mayer | 45 pts |
| 4 | Taylor Gray | 33 pts |
| 5 | Carson Kvapil | 50 pts |
Standings after race
| 1 | ▲ | Sheldon Creed | 2175 |
| 2 | ▼ | Justin Allgaier | 2172 |
| 3 | — | Carson Kvapil | 2166 |
| 4 | ▲ | Jesse Love | 2159 |
| 5 | ▲ | Sam Mayer | 2114 |
| 6 | ▼ | Austin Hill | 2114 |
| 7 | — | Sammy Smith | 2111 |
| 8 | ▼ | Corey Day | 2106 |
| 9 | ▼ | Brandon Jones | 2099 |
| 10 | — | Parker Retzlaff | 2092 |
| 11 | — | Taylor Gray | 2089 |
| 12 | — | Rajah Caruth | 2057 |
R27 Food City 300 · Bristol Motor Speedway final Sheldon Creed
Result
| 0 | Landon S. Huffman | 0 pts |
| 1 | Sheldon Creed | 60 pts |
| 2 | William Sawalich | 38 pts |
| 3 | Brent Crews | 47 pts |
| 4 | Justin Allgaier | 52 pts |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Sheldon Creed | 2235 |
| 2 | — | Justin Allgaier | 2224 |
| 3 | — | Carson Kvapil | 2198 |
| 4 | — | Jesse Love | 2194 |
| 5 | — | Sam Mayer | 2157 |
| 6 | ▲ | Corey Day | 2143 |
| 7 | — | Sammy Smith | 2143 |
| 8 | ▲ | Taylor Gray | 2131 |
| 9 | ▼ | Austin Hill | 2129 |
| 10 | — | Parker Retzlaff | 2124 |
| 11 | ▼ | Brandon Jones | 2121 |
| 12 | — | Rajah Caruth | 2071 |
R28 Focused Health 302 · Las Vegas Motor Speedway final Corey Day
Result
| 1 | Corey Day | 75 pts |
| 2 | Carson Kvapil | 42 pts |
| 3 | Jesse Love | 44 pts |
| 4 | Brent Crews | 43 pts |
| 5 | Taylor Gray | 38 pts |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Sheldon Creed | 2259 |
| 2 | ▲ | Carson Kvapil | 2240 |
| 3 | ▲ | Jesse Love | 2238 |
| 4 | ▼ | Justin Allgaier | 2229 |
| 5 | ▲ | Corey Day | 2218 |
| 6 | ▼ | Sam Mayer | 2207 |
| 7 | ▲ | Taylor Gray | 2169 |
| 8 | ▼ | Sammy Smith | 2165 |
| 9 | — | Austin Hill | 2160 |
| 10 | — | Parker Retzlaff | 2142 |
| 11 | — | Brandon Jones | 2122 |
| 12 | — | Rajah Caruth | 2113 |
R29 Blue Cross NC 300 · Charlotte Motor Speedway final Corey Day
Result
| 1 | Corey Day | 69 pts |
| 2 | Jesse Love | 54 pts |
| 3 | Sheldon Creed | 35 pts |
| 4 | Justin Allgaier | 50 pts |
| 5 | Carson Brown | 32 pts |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Sheldon Creed | 2294 |
| 2 | ▲ | Jesse Love | 2292 |
| 3 | ▲ | Corey Day | 2287 |
| 4 | — | Justin Allgaier | 2279 |
| 5 | ▼ | Carson Kvapil | 2254 |
| 6 | — | Sam Mayer | 2235 |
| 7 | — | Taylor Gray | 2207 |
| 8 | ▲ | Austin Hill | 2200 |
| 9 | ▼ | Sammy Smith | 2188 |
| 10 | — | Parker Retzlaff | 2168 |
| 11 | — | Brandon Jones | 2153 |
| 12 | — | Rajah Caruth | 2114 |
R30 Timberland PRO 200 · Phoenix Raceway final Jesse Love
Result
| 1 | Jesse Love | 75 pts |
| 2 | Sam Mayer | 46 pts |
| 3 | Justin Allgaier | 52 pts |
| 4 | Corey Day | 41 pts |
| 5 | Sammy Smith | 42 pts |
Standings after race
| 1 | ▲ | Jesse Love | 2367 |
| 2 | ▲ | Justin Allgaier | 2331 |
| 3 | — | Corey Day | 2328 |
| 4 | ▼ | Sheldon Creed | 2308 |
| 5 | — | Carson Kvapil | 2288 |
| 6 | — | Sam Mayer | 2281 |
| 7 | ▲ | Sammy Smith | 2230 |
| 8 | ▼ | Taylor Gray | 2226 |
| 9 | ▼ | Austin Hill | 2224 |
| 10 | — | Parker Retzlaff | 2194 |
| 11 | — | Brandon Jones | 2184 |
| 12 | — | Rajah Caruth | 2154 |
R31 The Progress Group 250 · Talladega Superspeedway next Jesse Love
Win probability
| Jesse Love | 7.6% |
| Justin Allgaier | 6.9% |
| Sheldon Creed | 5.8% |
| Carson Kvapil | 5.7% |
| Anthony Alfredo | 5.3% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Jesse Love | 2399 |
| 2 | — | Justin Allgaier | 2358 |
| 3 | — | Corey Day | 2352 |
| 4 | — | Sheldon Creed | 2337 |
| 5 | — | Carson Kvapil | 2314 |
| 6 | — | Sam Mayer | 2301 |
| 7 | — | Sammy Smith | 2258 |
| 8 | ▲ | Austin Hill | 2252 |
| 9 | ▼ | Taylor Gray | 2246 |
| 10 | — | Parker Retzlaff | 2223 |
| 11 | — | Brandon Jones | 2205 |
| 12 | — | Rajah Caruth | 2176 |
R32 National Debt Relief 250 · Martinsville Speedway Sammy Smith
Win probability
| Sammy Smith | 14.8% |
| Justin Allgaier | 14.8% |
| Sheldon Creed | 14.2% |
| Corey Day | 7.8% |
| Jesse Love | 6.2% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Jesse Love | 2429 |
| 2 | — | Justin Allgaier | 2397 |
| 3 | — | Corey Day | 2385 |
| 4 | — | Sheldon Creed | 2375 |
| 5 | — | Carson Kvapil | 2344 |
| 6 | — | Sam Mayer | 2330 |
| 7 | — | Sammy Smith | 2296 |
| 8 | — | Austin Hill | 2280 |
| 9 | — | Taylor Gray | 2276 |
| 10 | — | Parker Retzlaff | 2248 |
| 11 | — | Brandon Jones | 2231 |
| 12 | — | Rajah Caruth | 2203 |
R33 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Race · Homestead-Miami Speedway Corey Day
Win probability
| Corey Day | 16.4% |
| Brent Crews | 14.1% |
| Justin Allgaier | 12.8% |
| Jesse Love | 9.8% |
| Sam Mayer | 7.4% |
Standings after race
(projected)
| 1 | — | Jesse Love | 2466 |
| 2 | — | Justin Allgaier | 2434 |
| 3 | — | Corey Day | 2421 |
| 4 | — | Sheldon Creed | 2406 |
| 5 | — | Carson Kvapil | 2374 |
| 6 | — | Sam Mayer | 2364 |
| 7 | — | Sammy Smith | 2323 |
| 8 | — | Austin Hill | 2314 |
| 9 | — | Taylor Gray | 2304 |
| 10 | — | Parker Retzlaff | 2273 |
| 11 | — | Brandon Jones | 2262 |
| 12 | — | Rajah Caruth | 2226 |
200,000 season scenarios · 2,000 sims/race · 6 races scored from actual results · Completed Chase races carry actual results and actual points. Remaining races use expected (mean) Chase points per race; that ranking is an approximation that ignores variance. Full probabilistic championship odds are on the Standings page.