2026 Cup Standings

Chase qualification & championship probabilities

as of 2026-07-19

Cutline (16th): Erik Jones 446 pts 20 races done · 6 regular season left

Chase qual %: In (≥95%) Bubble (10–95%) Out (<10%)

#	Driver	Team	Pts	Proj W	Proj Pts	Chase%	Champ%	DK	Impl%	Edge
1	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	790	4.5	953	100.0%	52.1%	+175	36.4%	+15.7%
2	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	767	5.2	906	100.0%	6.1%	+400	20.0%	-13.9%
3	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	717	2.5	890	100.0%	17.5%	↑ +700	12.5%	+5.0%
4	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	663	1.2	799	100.0%	3.6%	+1800	5.3%	-1.7%
5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	586	0.6	755	100.0%	6.8%	+700	12.5%	-5.7%
6	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	600	2.3	747	100.0%	2.6%	↑ +1000	9.1%	-6.5%
7	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	568	0.2	707	100.0%	0.9%	+4000	2.4%	-1.5%
8	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	545	0.4	703	100.0%	6.9%	↑ +1000	9.1%	-2.2%
9	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	554	1.2	690	100.0%	0.4%	+3000	3.2%	-2.8%
10	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	542	1.2	682	99.9%	0.8%	+1400	6.7%	-5.9%
11	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	520	0.3	664	99.8%	1.9%	+1600	5.9%	-4.0%
12	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	525	1.1	635	99.2%	—	+7500	1.3%	-1.3%
13	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	493	0.3	631	97.3%	0.1%	+4000	2.4%	-2.3%
14	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	470	0.1	585	73.9%	—	+10000	1.0%	-1.0%
15	Joey Logano	Team Penske	428	0.4	577	64.0%	0.1%	+2500	3.8%	-3.7%
16	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	443	0.1	565	51.8%	—	+7500	1.3%	-1.3%
17	Shane Van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	464	2.1	565	50.5%	—	+3000	3.2%	-3.2%
18	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	446	0.1	554	36.5%	—	+10000	1.0%	-1.0%
19	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	401	0.1	522	11.6%	—	+5000	2.0%	-2.0%
20	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	396	0.2	518	9.1%	—	+6000	1.6%	-1.6%
21	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	392	0.1	506	4.5%	—	+10000	1.0%	-1.0%
22	AJ Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	396	0.1	493	1.4%	—	+20000	0.5%	-0.5%
23	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	350	0.1	449	0.2%	—	↑ +50000	0.2%	-0.2%
24	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	319	0.1	433	0.1%	—	+20000	0.5%	-0.5%
25	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	356	0.1	447	0.0%	—	+40000	0.2%	-0.2%
26	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	338	0.1	439	0.0%	—	+50000	0.2%	-0.2%
27	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	350	0.0	435	0.0%	—	+20000	0.5%	-0.5%
28	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	HYAK Motorsports	340	0.1	431	0.0%	—	+20000	0.5%	-0.5%
29	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	280	0.1	397	0.0%	—	+10000	1.0%	-1.0%
30	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	241	0.0	328	0.0%	—	+20000	0.5%	-0.5%
31	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	228	0.1	327	0.0%	—	+10000	1.0%	-1.0%
32	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	237	0.0	321	0.0%	—	+20000	0.5%	-0.5%
33	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	238	0.0	319	0.0%	—	+50000	0.2%	-0.2%
34	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	208	0.0	239	0.0%	—	+5000	2.0%	-2.0%
35	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	169	0.0	233	0.0%	—	+20000	0.5%	-0.5%
36	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	8	0.0	17	0.0%	—	—	—	—
37	BJ McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	4	0.0	15	0.0%	—	—	—	—
38	Kevin Magnussen	Trackhouse Racing	11	0.0	11	0.0%	—	—	—	—
39	Jimmie Johnson	Legacy Motor Club	9	0.0	9	0.0%	—	—	—	—
40	Casey Mears	Beard Motorsports	1	0.0	1	0.0%	—	—	—	—

5000 season scenarios · data as of 2026-07-19