Backtest Results
Model accuracy vs historical results · lower W-Rank and MAE = better
All Runs
| Year | Series | Races | MAE | MAE (fin.) | W-Rank | T3 avg | T5 avg | T10 avg | Avg DNFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Cup | 13 | 7.67 | 6.79 | 5.54 | 1.15/3 | 2.38/5 | 5.46/10 | 4.0 |
| 2026 | Trucks | 11 | 7.67 | 7.03 | 3.73 | 1.09/3 | 2.27/5 | 5.55/10 | 4.0 |
| 2026 | Xfinity | 16 | 7.36 | 6.41 | 6.56 | 0.94/3 | 1.88/5 | 5.75/10 | 4.0 |
| 2025 | Cup | 35 | 8.02 | 7.14 | 6.03 | 0.86/3 | 1.97/5 | 4.86/10 | 4.0 |
| 2025 | Trucks | 24 | 6.82 | 6.27 | 5.21 | 1.12/3 | 2.12/5 | 5.46/10 | 4.0 |
| 2025 | Xfinity | 33 | 7.68 | 6.66 | 7.79 | 1.21/3 | 2.24/5 | 5.24/10 | 4.0 |
| 2024 | Cup | 36 | 8.13 | 7.24 | 9.14 | 0.78/3 | 1.92/5 | 5.08/10 | 4.0 |
| 2024 | Trucks | 23 | 6.72 | 6.01 | 7.30 | 1.35/3 | 2.39/5 | 5.61/10 | 4.0 |
| 2024 | Xfinity | 32 | 7.87 | 6.94 | 8.50 | 0.78/3 | 1.88/5 | 5.94/10 | 4.0 |
| 2023 | Cup | 36 | 7.63 | 6.84 | 9.28 | 0.53/3 | 1.72/5 | 5.44/10 | 4.0 |
| 2023 | Trucks | 22 | 7.20 | 6.52 | 6.59 | 1.14/3 | 2.18/5 | 5.36/10 | 4.0 |
| 2023 | Xfinity | 32 | 7.61 | 6.72 | 6.94 | 0.94/3 | 1.97/5 | 5.91/10 | 4.0 |
| 2022 | Cup | 36 | 7.80 | 7.01 | 10.06 | 0.58/3 | 1.53/5 | 4.58/10 | 4.0 |
| 2022 | Trucks | 23 | 6.85 | 6.14 | 9.91 | 0.87/3 | 2.09/5 | 6.17/10 | 4.0 |
| 2022 | Xfinity | 33 | 7.74 | 6.86 | 6.36 | 1.03/3 | 2.18/5 | 5.70/10 | 4.0 |
Cup — By Track Style (all years combined)
| Style | Races | MAE | MAE (fin.) | W-Rank | T5 avg | T10 avg | Avg DNFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short Track | 38 | 6.76 | 6.08 | 6.42 | 2.26/5 | 5.76/10 | 4.0 |
| Road Course | 25 | 7.73 | 6.83 | 7.08 | 2.08/5 | 5.44/10 | 4.0 |
| Intermediate (1.5 mile) | 67 | 7.89 | 6.99 | 8.22 | 1.70/5 | 5.07/10 | 4.0 |
| Superspeedway | 26 | 9.63 | 8.72 | 12.92 | 1.31/5 | 3.46/10 | 4.0 |