Backtest Results
Model accuracy vs historical results · lower W-Rank and MAE = better
All Runs
| Year | Series | Races | MAE | MAE (fin.) | W-Rank | T3 avg | T5 avg | T10 avg | Avg DNFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Cup | 35 | 8.19 | 7.28 | 6.54 | 0.91/3 | 1.86/5 | 4.77/10 | 3.9 |
| 2025 | Trucks | 24 | 7.00 | 6.22 | 10.79 | 1.17/3 | 2.08/5 | 5.29/10 | 3.5 |
| 2025 | Xfinity | 33 | 7.69 | 6.61 | 8.55 | 1.24/3 | 2.30/5 | 5.30/10 | 3.7 |
| 2024 | Cup | 36 | 8.37 | 7.49 | 9.00 | 0.67/3 | 1.69/5 | 4.92/10 | 3.8 |
| 2024 | Trucks | 23 | 6.72 | 5.87 | 10.61 | 1.30/3 | 2.35/5 | 5.57/10 | 3.4 |
| 2024 | Xfinity | 32 | 7.71 | 6.65 | 11.47 | 0.88/3 | 1.84/5 | 6.00/10 | 3.6 |
| 2023 | Cup | 36 | 7.77 | 6.92 | 12.64 | 0.56/3 | 1.86/5 | 5.47/10 | 3.9 |
| 2023 | Trucks | 22 | 7.30 | 6.36 | 10.23 | 1.14/3 | 2.18/5 | 5.41/10 | 3.6 |
| 2023 | Xfinity | 32 | 7.66 | 6.66 | 7.00 | 0.94/3 | 1.97/5 | 5.94/10 | 3.8 |
| 2022 | Cup | 36 | 7.92 | 7.09 | 10.31 | 0.44/3 | 1.47/5 | 4.47/10 | 3.9 |
| 2022 | Trucks | 23 | 6.79 | 5.84 | 12.04 | 0.87/3 | 2.04/5 | 6.09/10 | 3.5 |
| 2022 | Xfinity | 33 | 7.79 | 6.76 | 8.97 | 0.94/3 | 2.15/5 | 5.76/10 | 3.7 |
Cup — By Track Style (all years combined)
| Style | Races | MAE | MAE (fin.) | W-Rank | T5 avg | T10 avg | Avg DNFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short Track | 35 | 7.08 | 6.37 | 6.89 | 2.03/5 | 5.74/10 | 3.8 |
| Intermediate (1.5 mile) | 62 | 8.08 | 7.16 | 8.47 | 1.55/5 | 4.87/10 | 3.9 |
| Road Course | 23 | 7.93 | 7.00 | 10.00 | 2.17/5 | 5.39/10 | 3.8 |
| Superspeedway | 23 | 9.65 | 8.73 | 16.65 | 1.26/5 | 3.26/10 | 3.9 |