Backtest Results
Model accuracy vs historical results · lower W-Rank and MAE = better
All Runs
| Year | Series | Races | MAE | MAE (fin.) | W-Rank | T3 avg | T5 avg | T10 avg | Avg DNFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Cup | 20 | 7.82 | 6.73 | 6.50 | 1.00/3 | 2.30/5 | 5.40/10 | 5.4 |
| 2026 | Trucks | 11 | 7.93 | 6.70 | 4.18 | 1.09/3 | 2.09/5 | 5.27/10 | 7.2 |
| 2026 | Xfinity | 20 | 7.35 | 6.23 | 5.25 | 0.95/3 | 1.85/5 | 5.80/10 | 6.4 |
| 2025 | Cup | 35 | 8.04 | 7.01 | 5.91 | 0.86/3 | 1.86/5 | 4.89/10 | 5.3 |
| 2025 | Trucks | 20 | 6.56 | 5.80 | 3.55 | 1.15/3 | 2.15/5 | 5.45/10 | 6.8 |
| 2025 | Xfinity | 32 | 7.65 | 6.51 | 6.53 | 1.28/3 | 2.28/5 | 5.19/10 | 5.9 |
| 2024 | Cup | 36 | 8.03 | 7.11 | 9.08 | 0.75/3 | 1.89/5 | 5.06/10 | 4.5 |
| 2024 | Trucks | 22 | 6.64 | 5.84 | 5.64 | 1.36/3 | 2.36/5 | 5.68/10 | 4.8 |
| 2024 | Xfinity | 31 | 7.83 | 6.51 | 9.61 | 0.87/3 | 1.68/5 | 6.03/10 | 6.8 |
| 2023 | Cup | 36 | 7.62 | 6.68 | 9.03 | 0.58/3 | 1.81/5 | 5.61/10 | 4.2 |
| 2023 | Trucks | 20 | 7.14 | 6.21 | 6.10 | 1.10/3 | 2.15/5 | 5.40/10 | 5.8 |
| 2023 | Xfinity | 31 | 7.63 | 6.48 | 6.90 | 1.00/3 | 2.10/5 | 6.00/10 | 6.9 |
| 2022 | Cup | 36 | 7.88 | 6.88 | 9.92 | 0.53/3 | 1.39/5 | 4.53/10 | 6.4 |
| 2022 | Trucks | 19 | 6.63 | 5.73 | 9.21 | 0.95/3 | 2.21/5 | 6.42/10 | 5.8 |
| 2022 | Xfinity | 29 | 7.95 | 6.81 | 6.55 | 1.14/3 | 2.03/5 | 5.59/10 | 7.6 |
Cup — By Track Style (all years combined)
| Style | Races | MAE | MAE (fin.) | W-Rank | T5 avg | T10 avg | Avg DNFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short Track | 38 | 6.79 | 6.10 | 6.32 | 2.26/5 | 5.95/10 | 3.5 |
| Intermediate (1.5 mile) | 71 | 7.93 | 6.80 | 7.80 | 1.69/5 | 5.20/10 | 5.3 |
| Road Course | 27 | 7.67 | 6.92 | 8.33 | 2.11/5 | 5.33/10 | 3.9 |
| Superspeedway | 27 | 9.51 | 8.27 | 12.11 | 1.15/5 | 3.22/10 | 8.4 |