2026 Projected Chase
Per-race winners & projected standings from the projected seeding
as of 2026-07-19 03:30 UTC
Projected champion:
Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing
2395 pts
Chase seeding (16 drivers)
| Seed | Driver | Team | Seed Pts | Proj Reg Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2100 | 953 |
| 2 | Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing | 2075 | 906 |
| 3 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske | 2065 | 890 |
| 4 | Ty Gibbs | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2060 | 799 |
| 5 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports | 2055 | 755 |
| 6 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports | 2050 | 747 |
| 7 | Chris Buescher | RFK Racing | 2045 | 707 |
| 8 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2040 | 703 |
| 9 | Carson Hocevar | Spire Motorsports | 2035 | 690 |
| 10 | Chase Briscoe | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2030 | 682 |
| 11 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | 2025 | 664 |
| 12 | Daniel Suarez | Spire Motorsports | 2020 | 635 |
| 13 | Bubba Wallace | 23XI Racing | 2015 | 631 |
| 14 | Austin Cindric | Team Penske | 2010 | 585 |
| 15 | Joey Logano | Team Penske | 2005 | 577 |
| 16 | Ryan Preece | RFK Racing | 2000 | 565 |
R27 Cook Out Southern 500 · Darlington Raceway Denny Hamlin
Win probability
| Denny Hamlin | 9.9% |
| Tyler Reddick | 9.8% |
| Ryan Blaney | 7.5% |
| Chris Buescher | 7.0% |
| Ty Gibbs | 5.9% |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2131 |
| 2 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2105 |
| 3 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2091 |
| 4 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2085 |
| 5 | — | Kyle Larson | 2076 |
| 6 | ▲ | Chris Buescher | 2072 |
| 7 | ▼ | Chase Elliott | 2070 |
| 8 | — | Christopher Bell | 2061 |
| 9 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2055 |
| 10 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2055 |
| 11 | — | William Byron | 2048 |
| 12 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2038 |
| 13 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2034 |
| 14 | — | Austin Cindric | 2028 |
| 15 | — | Joey Logano | 2027 |
| 16 | — | Ryan Preece | 2020 |
R28 Enjoy Illinois 300 · World Wide Technology Raceway Denny Hamlin
Win probability
| Denny Hamlin | 12.6% |
| Christopher Bell | 8.2% |
| Joey Logano | 7.1% |
| Ryan Blaney | 6.8% |
| Austin Cindric | 5.6% |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2163 |
| 2 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2127 |
| 3 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2117 |
| 4 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2109 |
| 5 | — | Kyle Larson | 2100 |
| 6 | — | Chris Buescher | 2096 |
| 7 | — | Chase Elliott | 2093 |
| 8 | — | Christopher Bell | 2090 |
| 9 | ▲ | Chase Briscoe | 2076 |
| 10 | ▼ | Carson Hocevar | 2075 |
| 11 | — | William Byron | 2071 |
| 12 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2057 |
| 13 | ▲ | Joey Logano | 2056 |
| 14 | ▼ | Bubba Wallace | 2055 |
| 15 | ▼ | Austin Cindric | 2054 |
| 16 | — | Ryan Preece | 2038 |
R29 Bass Pro Shops Night Race · Bristol Motor Speedway Ryan Blaney
Win probability
| Ryan Blaney | 14.3% |
| Ty Gibbs | 9.9% |
| Kyle Larson | 8.9% |
| Chase Briscoe | 8.7% |
| Denny Hamlin | 8.1% |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2192 |
| 2 | ▲ | Ryan Blaney | 2149 |
| 3 | ▼ | Tyler Reddick | 2147 |
| 4 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2140 |
| 5 | — | Kyle Larson | 2130 |
| 6 | — | Chris Buescher | 2122 |
| 7 | ▲ | Christopher Bell | 2119 |
| 8 | ▼ | Chase Elliott | 2116 |
| 9 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2105 |
| 10 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2102 |
| 11 | — | William Byron | 2094 |
| 12 | ▲ | Bubba Wallace | 2075 |
| 13 | — | Joey Logano | 2074 |
| 14 | ▼ | Daniel Suarez | 2073 |
| 15 | — | Austin Cindric | 2071 |
| 16 | — | Ryan Preece | 2060 |
R30 Hollywood Casino 400 · Kansas Speedway Kyle Larson
Win probability
| Kyle Larson | 11.1% |
| Chase Elliott | 9.4% |
| Tyler Reddick | 8.3% |
| Christopher Bell | 6.8% |
| Chase Briscoe | 5.8% |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2222 |
| 2 | ▲ | Tyler Reddick | 2175 |
| 3 | ▼ | Ryan Blaney | 2170 |
| 4 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2162 |
| 5 | — | Kyle Larson | 2160 |
| 6 | ▲ | Christopher Bell | 2147 |
| 7 | ▲ | Chase Elliott | 2145 |
| 8 | ▼ | Chris Buescher | 2142 |
| 9 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2131 |
| 10 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2122 |
| 11 | — | William Byron | 2115 |
| 12 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2098 |
| 13 | — | Joey Logano | 2091 |
| 14 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2090 |
| 15 | — | Austin Cindric | 2087 |
| 16 | — | Ryan Preece | 2079 |
R31 South Point 400 · Las Vegas Motor Speedway Christopher Bell
Win probability
| Christopher Bell | 10.5% |
| Denny Hamlin | 10.5% |
| Alex Bowman | 9.1% |
| William Byron | 7.2% |
| Kyle Larson | 6.0% |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2252 |
| 2 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2195 |
| 3 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2190 |
| 4 | ▲ | Kyle Larson | 2189 |
| 5 | ▼ | Ty Gibbs | 2184 |
| 6 | — | Christopher Bell | 2176 |
| 7 | — | Chase Elliott | 2167 |
| 8 | — | Chris Buescher | 2162 |
| 9 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2150 |
| 10 | ▲ | William Byron | 2144 |
| 11 | ▼ | Carson Hocevar | 2141 |
| 12 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2116 |
| 13 | — | Joey Logano | 2114 |
| 14 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2109 |
| 15 | — | Austin Cindric | 2104 |
| 16 | — | Ryan Preece | 2099 |
R32 Bank of America 400 · Charlotte Motor Speedway Christopher Bell
Win probability
| Christopher Bell | 13.0% |
| William Byron | 10.4% |
| Denny Hamlin | 8.2% |
| Tyler Reddick | 5.0% |
| Daniel Suarez | 4.8% |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2282 |
| 2 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2221 |
| 3 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2211 |
| 4 | — | Kyle Larson | 2211 |
| 5 | ▲ | Christopher Bell | 2207 |
| 6 | ▼ | Ty Gibbs | 2207 |
| 7 | — | Chase Elliott | 2186 |
| 8 | — | Chris Buescher | 2182 |
| 9 | ▲ | William Byron | 2173 |
| 10 | ▼ | Chase Briscoe | 2171 |
| 11 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2161 |
| 12 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2136 |
| 13 | — | Joey Logano | 2134 |
| 14 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2133 |
| 15 | — | Austin Cindric | 2120 |
| 16 | — | Ryan Preece | 2115 |
R33 Freeway Insurance 500 · Phoenix Raceway Christopher Bell
Win probability
| Christopher Bell | 12.5% |
| Ryan Blaney | 12.4% |
| Denny Hamlin | 11.2% |
| Kyle Larson | 9.6% |
| William Byron | 5.4% |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2314 |
| 2 | ▲ | Ryan Blaney | 2247 |
| 3 | ▼ | Tyler Reddick | 2242 |
| 4 | — | Kyle Larson | 2241 |
| 5 | — | Christopher Bell | 2238 |
| 6 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2230 |
| 7 | — | Chase Elliott | 2211 |
| 8 | — | Chris Buescher | 2203 |
| 9 | — | William Byron | 2198 |
| 10 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2193 |
| 11 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2180 |
| 12 | ▲ | Joey Logano | 2158 |
| 13 | ▼ | Bubba Wallace | 2153 |
| 14 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2149 |
| 15 | ▲ | Ryan Preece | 2138 |
| 16 | ▼ | Austin Cindric | 2136 |
R34 YellaWood 500 · Talladega Superspeedway Austin Cindric
Win probability
| Austin Cindric | 5.5% |
| Chase Elliott | 5.0% |
| Ryan Blaney | 4.5% |
| Carson Hocevar | 4.2% |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 4.2% |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2335 |
| 2 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2268 |
| 3 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2264 |
| 4 | — | Kyle Larson | 2261 |
| 5 | — | Christopher Bell | 2257 |
| 6 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2249 |
| 7 | — | Chase Elliott | 2235 |
| 8 | — | Chris Buescher | 2222 |
| 9 | — | William Byron | 2220 |
| 10 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2212 |
| 11 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2202 |
| 12 | — | Joey Logano | 2175 |
| 13 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2173 |
| 14 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2169 |
| 15 | ▲ | Austin Cindric | 2158 |
| 16 | ▼ | Ryan Preece | 2156 |
R35 Xfinity 500 · Martinsville Speedway Ryan Blaney
Win probability
| Ryan Blaney | 13.6% |
| Kyle Larson | 10.8% |
| William Byron | 10.3% |
| Denny Hamlin | 9.8% |
| Chase Elliott | 9.5% |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2365 |
| 2 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2303 |
| 3 | ▲ | Kyle Larson | 2293 |
| 4 | ▲ | Christopher Bell | 2287 |
| 5 | ▼ | Tyler Reddick | 2281 |
| 6 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2278 |
| 7 | — | Chase Elliott | 2266 |
| 8 | ▲ | William Byron | 2251 |
| 9 | ▼ | Chris Buescher | 2241 |
| 10 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2232 |
| 11 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2220 |
| 12 | — | Joey Logano | 2205 |
| 13 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2191 |
| 14 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2185 |
| 15 | ▲ | Ryan Preece | 2182 |
| 16 | ▼ | Austin Cindric | 2175 |
R36 NASCAR Championship Race · Homestead-Miami Speedway Ryan Blaney
Win probability
| Ryan Blaney | 10.1% |
| Bubba Wallace | 7.5% |
| Tyler Reddick | 7.0% |
| William Byron | 6.6% |
| Denny Hamlin | 6.2% |
Standings after race
| 1 | — | Denny Hamlin | 2395 |
| 2 | — | Ryan Blaney | 2332 |
| 3 | — | Kyle Larson | 2318 |
| 4 | — | Christopher Bell | 2312 |
| 5 | — | Tyler Reddick | 2307 |
| 6 | — | Ty Gibbs | 2298 |
| 7 | — | Chase Elliott | 2289 |
| 8 | — | William Byron | 2280 |
| 9 | — | Chris Buescher | 2264 |
| 10 | — | Chase Briscoe | 2254 |
| 11 | — | Carson Hocevar | 2241 |
| 12 | — | Joey Logano | 2225 |
| 13 | — | Bubba Wallace | 2218 |
| 14 | — | Daniel Suarez | 2206 |
| 15 | — | Ryan Preece | 2200 |
| 16 | — | Austin Cindric | 2194 |
5,000 season scenarios · 2,000 sims/race · Cumulative standings use expected (mean) Chase points per race; the ranking is an approximation that ignores variance. Full probabilistic championship odds are on the Standings page.