Michigan International Speedway

Cup Series · Intermediate (1.5 mile)

Edge vs book implied%: ≥ +5% +2–5% flat -2–5% ≤ -5%

Driver	Team	Fin	DNF%	Win%	DK	Edge	Top5%	DK	Edge	Top10%	DK	Edge
Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	9.37	8.9%	14.4%	+400 20.0%	-5.6%	46.9%	-175 63.7%	-16.8%	68.9%	-500 83.3%	-14.4%
Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	12.1	9.9%	10.3%	+700 12.5%	-2.2%	34.5%	-105 51.2%	-16.7%	55.0%	-274 73.3%	-18.3%
Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	11.93	7.6%	7.2%	↓ +1400 6.7%	+0.5%	33.7%	+260 27.8%	+5.9%	54.6%	-105 51.2%	+3.4%
Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	14.11	13.8%	6.3%	+1000 9.1%	-2.8%	27.7%	+135 42.6%	-14.9%	46.8%	-190 65.5%	-18.7%
Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	12.47	9.6%	5.5%	↓ +1200 7.7%	-2.2%	31.1%	+185 35.1%	-4.0%	52.7%	-140 58.3%	-5.6%
Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	16.88	17.2%	5.0%	+700 12.5%	-7.5%	18.5%	-105 51.2%	-32.7%	35.2%	-274 73.3%	-38.1%
Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	13.78	8.0%	4.7%	+4000 2.4%	+2.3%	25.5%	+500 16.7%	+8.8%	45.5%	+190 34.5%	+11.0%
Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	17.34	16.9%	4.4%	+1400 6.7%	-2.3%	16.8%	+185 35.1%	-18.3%	33.0%	-140 58.3%	-25.3%
Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	16.74	11.8%	3.5%	+6500 1.5%	+2.0%	16.6%	+800 11.1%	+5.5%	33.2%	+300 25.0%	+8.2%
Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	16.87	15.6%	3.0%	+600 14.3%	-11.3%	17.6%	-120 54.6%	-37.0%	34.8%	-330 76.7%	-41.9%
Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	17.83	8.4%	2.9%	+1200 7.7%	-4.8%	12.3%	+160 38.5%	-26.2%	27.4%	-165 62.3%	-34.9%
Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	16.4	12.2%	2.8%	↓ +2000 4.8%	-2.0%	17.9%	+280 26.3%	-8.4%	35.0%	+110 47.6%	-12.6%
Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	16.82	10.9%	2.8%	↓ +2500 3.8%	-1.0%	16.0%	+359 21.7%	-5.7%	32.7%	+135 42.6%	-9.9%
Joey Logano	Team Penske	19.43	19.1%	2.7%	+2500 3.8%	-1.1%	11.7%	+320 23.8%	-12.2%	25.0%	+120 45.5%	-20.5%
Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	17.31	14.4%	2.5%	+10000 1.0%	+1.5%	16.1%	+1200 7.7%	+8.4%	32.0%	+450 18.2%	+13.8%
William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	17.91	16.7%	2.5%	+1400 6.7%	-4.2%	15.1%	+185 35.1%	-20.0%	30.4%	-140 58.3%	-27.9%
Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	18.81	14.8%	2.5%	+2800 3.4%	-0.9%	11.8%	+359 21.7%	-9.9%	25.8%	+135 42.6%	-16.8%
Shane Van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	18.25	18.8%	2.3%	+2000 4.8%	-2.5%	14.8%	+260 27.8%	-13.0%	29.8%	-105 51.2%	-21.4%
Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	17.47	8.8%	1.8%	+9000 1.1%	+0.7%	13.5%	+1100 8.3%	+5.2%	29.1%	+400 20.0%	+9.1%
Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	18.76	11.7%	1.5%	+15000 0.7%	+0.8%	11.2%	+1800 5.3%	+5.9%	25.1%	+650 13.3%	+11.8%
Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	19.93	18.0%	1.3%	+7000 1.4%	-0.1%	10.0%	+850 10.5%	-0.5%	22.5%	+320 23.8%	-1.3%
Austin Cindric	Team Penske	20.78	19.4%	1.2%	+6500 1.5%	-0.3%	8.6%	+800 11.1%	-2.5%	19.9%	+300 25.0%	-5.1%
AJ Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	20.46	18.3%	1.1%	+20000 0.5%	+0.6%	9.1%	+2500 3.8%	+5.3%	20.9%	+900 10.0%	+10.9%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	HYAK Motorsports	20.02	15.0%	1.1%	+15000 0.7%	+0.4%	9.3%	+1800 5.3%	+4.0%	21.4%	+650 13.3%	+8.1%
Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	20.13	12.9%	1.0%	+13000 0.8%	+0.2%	8.4%	+1600 5.9%	+2.5%	20.2%	+550 15.4%	+4.8%
Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	20.78	13.8%	0.9%	+40000 0.2%	+0.7%	7.2%	+5000 2.0%	+5.2%	18.1%	+1800 5.3%	+12.8%
Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	24.29	30.7%	0.9%	+20000 0.5%	+0.4%	4.5%	+2500 3.8%	+0.7%	11.8%	+900 10.0%	+1.8%
Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	19.25	14.3%	0.8%	+20000 0.5%	+0.3%	8.4%	+2500 3.8%	+4.6%	22.0%	+900 10.0%	+12.0%
Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	21.21	18.0%	0.8%	+50000 0.2%	+0.6%	7.3%	+6000 1.6%	+5.7%	18.0%	+2200 4.3%	+13.7%
Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	21.78	19.0%	0.7%	+50000 0.2%	+0.5%	6.8%	+6000 1.6%	+5.2%	16.7%	+2200 4.3%	+12.4%
Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	23.04	26.2%	0.6%	+30000 0.3%	+0.3%	5.7%	+3500 2.8%	+2.9%	14.4%	+1300 7.1%	+7.3%
Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	25.46	38.8%	0.4%	+100000 0.1%	+0.3%	3.8%	+12000 0.8%	+3.0%	10.3%	+4500 2.2%	+8.1%
Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	17.01	9.3%	0.1%	+6500 1.5%	-1.4%	1.6%	+800 11.1%	-9.5%	26.6%	+300 25.0%	+1.6%
John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	21.23	15.9%	0.0%	+30000 0.3%	-0.3%	0.1%	+3500 2.8%	-2.8%	5.0%	+1300 7.1%	-2.1%
Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	24.4	13.5%	0.0%	+25000 0.4%	-0.4%	0.0%	+3000 3.2%	-3.2%	0.1%	+1100 8.3%	-8.2%
Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	25.67	25.6%	0.0%	+15000 0.7%	-0.7%	0.0%	+1800 5.3%	-5.3%	0.1%	+650 13.3%	-13.2%

50,000 simulations · data as of 2026-06-03 02:00 UTC