Bristol Motor Speedway

Cup Series · Short Track

Edge vs book implied%: ≥ +5% +2–5% flat -2–5% ≤ -5%

Driver	Team	Fin	DNF%	Win%	DK	Edge	Top5%	DK	Edge	Top10%	DK	Edge
Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	16.09	8.4%	23.5%	+370 21.3%	+2.2%	37.8%	-190 65.5%	-27.7%	45.7%	-500 83.3%	-37.6%
Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	16.34	7.8%	21.8%	+850 10.5%	+11.3%	36.1%	+114 46.5%	-10.4%	44.2%	-225 69.3%	-25.1%
Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	15.08	8.4%	7.5%	+340 22.7%	-15.2%	26.8%	-200 66.7%	-40.0%	42.4%	-598 85.7%	-43.3%
Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	14.57	6.2%	6.1%	+4000 2.4%	+3.7%	31.6%	+500 16.7%	+14.9%	47.6%	+190 34.5%	+13.1%
Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	16.23	13.4%	5.1%	+650 13.3%	-8.2%	23.1%	-110 52.4%	-29.3%	39.2%	-274 73.3%	-34.1%
Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	15.53	6.6%	3.8%	+2200 4.3%	-0.5%	25.5%	+285 26.0%	-0.5%	43.1%	+110 47.6%	-4.5%
Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	17.08	14.3%	3.8%	+1800 5.3%	-1.5%	25.2%	+235 29.9%	-4.7%	40.8%	-110 52.4%	-11.6%
Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	20.07	18.0%	3.8%	+1100 8.3%	-4.5%	21.6%	+145 40.8%	-19.2%	33.1%	-175 63.7%	-30.6%
Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	16.56	8.6%	3.4%	+1500 6.2%	-2.8%	18.0%	+190 34.5%	-16.5%	34.1%	-125 55.6%	-21.5%
Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	19.87	17.7%	3.3%	+11000 0.9%	+2.4%	20.8%	+1300 7.1%	+13.7%	33.2%	+500 16.7%	+16.5%
Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	11.83	7.3%	3.0%	+750 11.8%	-8.8%	25.9%	+100 50.0%	-24.1%	54.6%	-250 71.4%	-16.8%
Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	18.98	10.7%	2.3%	+2200 4.3%	-2.0%	18.4%	+285 26.0%	-7.6%	32.9%	+110 47.6%	-14.7%
William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	17.64	13.8%	2.2%	+2500 3.8%	-1.6%	20.1%	+320 23.8%	-3.7%	37.1%	+120 45.5%	-8.4%
Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	18.36	10.9%	1.4%	+4000 2.4%	-1.0%	15.8%	+500 16.7%	-0.9%	32.8%	+190 34.5%	-1.7%
Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	19.54	14.2%	1.4%	+3500 2.8%	-1.4%	15.7%	+425 19.0%	-3.3%	31.2%	+165 37.7%	-6.5%
Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	21.25	20.7%	1.4%	+9000 1.1%	+0.3%	14.5%	+1100 8.3%	+6.2%	27.8%	+400 20.0%	+7.8%
Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	18.54	9.5%	1.0%	+1100 8.3%	-7.3%	13.9%	+145 40.8%	-26.9%	31.1%	-175 63.7%	-32.6%
AJ Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	21.51	18.5%	0.9%	+35000 0.3%	+0.6%	12.3%	+4000 2.4%	+9.9%	25.8%	+1500 6.2%	+19.6%
Joey Logano	Team Penske	20.17	14.0%	0.7%	+2800 3.4%	-2.7%	11.1%	+359 21.7%	-10.6%	26.7%	+135 42.6%	-15.9%
Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	18.3	7.0%	0.6%	+3500 2.8%	-2.2%	9.8%	+425 19.0%	-9.2%	27.2%	+165 37.7%	-10.5%
Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	22.44	21.6%	0.6%	+25000 0.4%	+0.2%	9.6%	+3000 3.2%	+6.4%	22.8%	+1100 8.3%	+14.5%
Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	20.52	10.7%	0.5%	+35000 0.3%	+0.2%	9.4%	+4000 2.4%	+7.0%	24.3%	+1500 6.2%	+18.1%
Austin Cindric	Team Penske	20.46	9.6%	0.3%	+3500 2.8%	-2.5%	6.7%	+425 19.0%	-12.3%	21.5%	+165 37.7%	-16.2%
Shane Van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	21.75	19.3%	0.3%	+30000 0.3%	+0.0%	6.8%	+3500 2.8%	+4.0%	20.7%	+1300 7.1%	+13.6%
Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	21.59	12.1%	0.2%	+60000 0.2%	+0.0%	6.4%	+7500 1.3%	+5.1%	20.2%	+2500 3.8%	+16.4%
Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	23.97	24.5%	0.2%	+13000 0.8%	-0.6%	6.2%	+1600 5.9%	+0.3%	18.0%	+550 15.4%	+2.6%
Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	25.28	22.1%	0.2%	+30000 0.3%	-0.1%	2.4%	+3500 2.8%	-0.4%	8.2%	+1300 7.1%	+1.1%
John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	19.59	10.4%	0.1%	+30000 0.3%	-0.2%	8.7%	+3500 2.8%	+5.9%	30.1%	+1300 7.1%	+23.0%
Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	22.41	16.3%	0.1%	+8000 1.2%	-1.1%	3.9%	+1000 9.1%	-5.2%	15.3%	+370 21.3%	-6.0%
Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	23.01	16.7%	0.1%	+9000 1.1%	-1.0%	2.8%	+1100 8.3%	-5.5%	13.1%	+400 20.0%	-6.9%
Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	21.98	10.6%	0.1%	+80000 0.1%	+0.0%	4.4%	+10000 1.0%	+3.4%	16.9%	+3500 2.8%	+14.1%
Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	23.73	20.4%	0.1%	+30000 0.3%	-0.2%	3.2%	+3500 2.8%	+0.4%	13.9%	+1300 7.1%	+6.8%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	HYAK Motorsports	24.17	24.5%	0.1%	+10000 1.0%	-0.9%	3.9%	+1200 7.7%	-3.8%	14.5%	+450 18.2%	-3.7%
Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	20.96	9.3%	0.0%	+10000 1.0%	-1.0%	0.5%	+1200 7.7%	-7.2%	13.2%	+450 18.2%	-5.0%
Corey Heim	23XI Racing	22.36	9.5%	0.0%	— —	—	0.5%	— —	—	9.3%	— —	—
Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	23.91	10.4%	0.0%	— —	—	0.0%	— —	—	1.8%	— —	—
Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	24.07	10.7%	0.0%	+17000 0.6%	-0.6%	0.0%	+2000 4.8%	-4.8%	1.1%	+750 11.8%	-10.7%
Justin Allgaier	JR Motorsports	25.0	15.0%	0.0%	— —	—	0.0%	— —	—	0.5%	— —	—
Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	28.41	39.2%	0.0%	+80000 0.1%	-0.1%	0.5%	+10000 1.0%	-0.5%	4.1%	+3500 2.8%	+1.3%
BJ McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	30.84	46.2%	0.0%	— —	—	0.0%	— —	—	0.0%	— —	—

50,000 simulations · data as of 2026-04-12 06:00 UTC