2026 Cup Standings
Chase standings & championship probabilities
Championship trajectory (top 16 drivers, races 27–36 · as of 2026-09-02 03:30 UTC)
Projected championship % after each Chase race
Left of “now”: championship % implied by the standings that actually existed after each race. Right: the forward Chase simulation, which tracks the chance of leading the standings after each race — a different measure, so the two sides are drawn apart rather than joined.
Recomputed with today's model, so early-season points carry hindsight; it shows how the title picture moved, not what was published at the time.
Hover for per-race numbers · click a driver to isolate their line now: Denny Hamlin at 72.2%
| # | Driver | Team | Chase Pts | W | Reg Pts | Champ% | DK | Impl% | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2100 | 4 | 1026 | 72.2% | -110 | 52.4% | +19.8% |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske | 2075 | 3 | 929 | 10.3% | +550 | 15.4% | -5.1% |
| 3 | Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing | 2065 | 5 | 894 | 3.8% | +800 | 11.1% | -7.3% |
| 4 | Ty Gibbs | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2060 | 2 | 890 | 0.5% | +800 | 11.1% | -10.6% |
| 5 | Chase Briscoe | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2055 | 1 | 761 | 1.1% | +1200 | 7.7% | -6.6% |
| 6 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | 2050 | 0 | 752 | 6.8% | +800 | 11.1% | -4.3% |
| 7 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports | 2045 | 0 | 716 | 3.4% | +1600 | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| 8 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports | 2040 | 2 | 713 | 0.4% | +1800 | 5.3% | -4.9% |
| 9 | Joey Logano | Team Penske | 2035 | 2 | 699 | 0.7% | +1400 | 6.7% | -6.0% |
| 10 | Chris Buescher | RFK Racing | 2030 | 0 | 677 | — | +8000 | 1.2% | -1.2% |
| 11 | Daniel Suarez | Spire Motorsports | 2025 | 1 | 672 | — | +10000 | 1.0% | -1.0% |
| 12 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | 2020 | 0 | 666 | 0.7% | +4000 | 2.4% | -1.7% |
| 13 | Carson Hocevar | Spire Motorsports | 2015 | 1 | 664 | — | +6000 | 1.6% | -1.6% |
| 14 | Bubba Wallace | 23XI Racing | 2010 | 0 | 651 | — | +8000 | 1.2% | -1.2% |
| 15 | Ryan Preece | RFK Racing | 2005 | 1 | 645 | — | +15000 | 0.7% | -0.7% |
| 16 | Austin Cindric | Team Penske | 2000 | 0 | 631 | — | +10000 | 1.0% | -1.0% |
| 17 | Shane Van Gisbergen | Trackhouse Racing | — | 2 | 600 | — | — | — | — |
| 18 | Brad Keselowski | RFK Racing | — | 0 | 536 | — | — | — | — |
| 19 | Ross Chastain | Trackhouse Racing | — | 0 | 518 | — | — | — | — |
| 20 | Michael McDowell | Spire Motorsports | — | 0 | 510 | — | — | — | — |
| 21 | Erik Jones | Legacy Motor Club | — | 0 | 498 | — | — | — | — |
| 22 | Todd Gilliland | Front Row Motorsports | — | 0 | 465 | — | — | — | — |
| 23 | AJ Allmendinger | Kaulig Racing | — | 0 | 463 | — | — | — | — |
| 24 | Zane Smith | Front Row Motorsports | — | 0 | 455 | — | — | — | — |
| 25 | Austin Dillon | Richard Childress Racing | — | 0 | 427 | — | — | — | — |
| 26 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | HYAK Motorsports | — | 0 | 426 | — | — | — | — |
| 27 | John Hunter Nemechek | Legacy Motor Club | — | 0 | 412 | — | — | — | — |
| 28 | Josh Berry | Wood Brothers Racing | — | 0 | 409 | — | — | — | — |
| 29 | Riley Herbst | 23XI Racing | — | 0 | 402 | — | — | — | — |
| 30 | Alex Bowman | Hendrick Motorsports | — | 0 | 390 | — | — | — | — |
| 31 | Noah Gragson | Front Row Motorsports | — | 0 | 346 | — | — | — | — |
| 32 | Cole Custer | Haas Factory Team | — | 0 | 329 | — | — | — | — |
| 33 | Ty Dillon | Kaulig Racing | — | 0 | 310 | — | — | — | — |
| 34 | Connor Zilisch | Trackhouse Racing | — | 0 | 271 | — | — | — | — |
| 35 | Cody Ware | Rick Ware Racing | — | 0 | 201 | — | — | — | — |
| 36 | Kevin Magnussen | Trackhouse Racing | — | 0 | 11 | — | — | — | — |
| 37 | Casey Mears | Garage 66 | — | 0 | 10 | — | — | — | — |
| 38 | Jimmie Johnson | Legacy Motor Club | — | 0 | 9 | — | — | — | — |
| 39 | Katherine Legge | Live Fast Motorsports | — | 0 | 8 | — | — | — | — |
| 40 | BJ McLeod | Live Fast Motorsports | — | 0 | 4 | — | — | — | — |
5000 season scenarios · data as of 2026-09-02 · Chase Pts are actual; Champ% is simulated over the races still to run